Presidential Election: President Obama vs Mitt Romney

I suppose I will go out on a limb and make a prediction on the election. Just to make sure that I'm clear from the onset, I will be casting my vote for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. I made that case awhile back on this blog and nothing has changed for me on that. I don't believe that Romney or Obama are candidates who represent the sort of real change it's going to take to get our nation back on track from a fiscal standpoint or an international one. Gary Johnson is the type of leader we need. He is a candidate that is willing to talk about the issues facing our country in an adult manner. If Gary Johnson had been given just half the media attention the two mainstream candidates have been given and he had been in the debates, I am of the opinion that we would be looking at a real three way race. Instead, the Democrats and Republicans keep the power on lock down and the nation is worse off for it. 

That said and out of the way, I believe Mitt Romney will win the White House on Tuesday. I admit that I am not some political prognosticator and I've never been good at figuring out what polls and such mean. We've seen polling off time and time again over the past couple of decades and I feel like they could be off again this time as the dynamics of the country continue to change. People are more cynical about politics these days and the ability to reach people to do polling is getting more difficult, especially when trying to identify who will actually go out and vote. 

An example of this is the recall election for governor from a couple years back in Wisconsin. The polling had it a virtual tie, but the final vote was a 7 point win for Scott Walker. That's some major league fucking fudging up right there. 

I posted this (below) on an online forum today and this is all my "reading the tea leaves", and comes from no real experience in doing so. Take what I say with a grain of salt, as I'm simply interested in politics and the dynamics of the race.

The polls, however, ARE showing it close in Florida, yet nobody is campaigning significantly there at this time, but they are going nuts in Ohio. The RCP (realclearpolitics.com) average in Florida is closer than Ohio and Wisconsin, so it seems like THAT would be the battleground state that Romney would be hammering on, but again, it's not.

The time they are spending in Ohio and Wisconsin really says that those two states are in play more than Florida. Follow me.....Florida is a 1.4 on the RCP to Romney. Wisconsin is a 5.4 for Obama and Ohio is a 2.9 for Obama. From looking at the polls, it doesn't seem to make sense that Obama would be making 3 stops in Wisconsin today. If he really had it locked down, why is he there just as many times today as he was in Ohio?

Given that, it's likely that those two states hold the keys (Wisconsin/Ohio) and are really in play, despite the polling suggesting that Obama has a lead. A bigger lead in those two states than in Florida, yet Obama is doing most of his campaigning there. If Romney can't win the White House without Florida, and it's really just a 1.4 lead for him, it seems like he'd be spending a lot time there, but he's not.

There has to be something that is running that dynamic and I'm interested in trying to figure out what that is. Do they have internal numbers that are showing the reality of the race and the public polling is off? Hell, RCP has Virginia a dead heat, yet there is little action there.

You can also look at where they are spending their money and see how it could play into what the campaigns are seeing. Romney is spending roughly 5.5 million on ads in Ohio and about 5 million in Florida. Obama is spending almost 6.5 in Florida and 9.5 in Ohio. The highest spending PAC for Obama is outspending the highest PAC for Romney in Ohio. PACs for either campaign are not spending much in Florida at all. In Wisconsin, Obama is spending over 3 million and Romney is spending 1.5. By virtue of the spending, it looks like it's all about Ohio for Obama, as he is spending nearly double what Romney is in the state.

Romney is also making trips to New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. He's making trips to Democrat leaning states when Florida and Virginia tied? Either Romney is sunk and trying to throw "hail mary's" all over the place, or he is sitting comfortably in those two states.

Can you see how that is sort of strange? Are the polls off like they were for the Wisconsin recall? The polling there had it a dead heat, but Walker won by 7 points.

In watching a couple of speeches today, Obama has been wildly negative on Romney, while Romney is talking about getting to work on November 7th. Obama's crowds are very small compared to '08 and Romney is getting a lot of people out. Definitely anecdotal, but just part of "reading the tea leaves" that I find interesting.

UPDATE: Romney is going to Virginia twice on Monday and Bill Clinton will be in Pennsylvania for 4 rallies. Obama will be in Virginia and Ohio. It's probable that the candidates are going to hit as many stops as possible and we will likely see each of them stop in as many as 3 states on Monday. 

With all that in writing, I will go a bit further and predict the battleground states and the electoral margin. I think Romney will win Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, and pick up a big upset in Wisconsin. I believe Obama will take Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota. 

Electoral Count? Romney 295 Obama 243

As a reminder, please do not take this as any sort of endorsement of Mitt Romney from my end. I just thought it would be fun to make a prediction. No matter how it turns out, it will give me a topic next week! 

I'm Crushing This Morning: Concrete Blonde

I'm having a big of a crush on a band this morning and plan to spend an hour or two digging their music. Singer Johnette Napolitano has been a favorite of mine for almost 20 years. We had an assistant baseball coach at Lindsey Wilson College (John H.) who was into music and knew that I listened to quite a bit of stuff off the beaten path. He had a CD of Concrete Blonde's called "Bloodletting", which had their only hit "Joey" on it. He loved that song, but considered the rest of the record a bit dark for his tastes, so he gave it to me. 

I started listening to it.....A LOT! I listened so much that the guys I shared an apartment with started liking it. Then they started pulling it off the shelf and it was getting played even when I wasn't around. It truly is an amazing record and one that I recommend to any music lover. A pop sound, but there is an undertone of darkness to the music and definitely in the lyrics. Relationships, alcohol abuse, suicide, all of it is right there. 

Some years back, a college buddy of mine (Joey W.) ventured up from his hometown, which is in the Land of Lincoln, and attended a Concrete Blonde show with me at a night spot here in Louisville. I can't remember the name of the place, but that's not important. They were pretty damned good and the crowd was into it. There was some tension in the band though and at one point, the guitarist (James Mankey) got pissed off at singer Johnette Napolitano and told her to play the guitar if she didn't like what he was doing and he walked off. She sang a few songs by herself, one a heart piercing cover of "Mercedes Benz" made famous by Janis Joplin. 

Joey and I got to watch the band disintegrate before our eyes, but since then they have played together quite a bit. They even did a mini-tour commemorating the re-mastering and re-release of the Bloodletting record. Anyhow, I really dig their music and thought I'd write about them this morning and share a few songs that I think some of you may dig. They have released eight albums, the best of which are the aforementioned "Bloodletting" and "Mexican Moon". 

"Someday?" from Walking In London

"Caroline" from Bloodletting

"Joey" Live on Dennis Miller from Bloodletting

"Mexican Moon" from Mexican Moon

"Heal It Up" from Mexican Moon

A REAL SHOWCASE FOR HER SOARING VOICE

I hope you listen to a few tracks and enjoy it! Even if you don't, I'll make up for your displeasure!  

What Has Happened To My Republican Party?

Though I've never voted for a Democrat for president and am a registered Republican, I've been called a "liberal" and an "Obama supporter" from time by a few people who know damn well I'm not and I'd really like to address something as a matter of curiosity. This isn't in anyway supportive of the Democrats and/or liberals, it's about the GOP....the party I had voted with for a long time.

I've never been a Democrat, and if a Republican (or former one now) can't stand up and call out the party, who can?

Why are regular Joe Republicans still so clingy to the party? This really isn't meant for the radical right. Those people have a worldview that believes an authoritarian or theocratic government would be best. Even though I don't subscribe to that in any way, I can understand that they hold this view and may do so for a variety of reasons including how they were brought up, social philosophy, and religious beliefs. I'm talking to you guys who don't have that world view, but still can't seem to get out of the grasp of the Republican party.

I am a registered Republican who feels like the party just doesn't want my kind any longer, and that being the way it is, I don't care to give them my vote in certain cases anymore. Voting is an important right and candidates should earn a vote, not be given it by default. I will vote for the best candidate from now on, and if there is not a suitable candidate, I wont' vote at all. No more giving my vote up based on a false idea or an outdated notion of what it means to be a Republican or a conservative. No more voting on the "lesser of two evils" as if that is an acceptable way of electing the people who should be serving our interests and not the other way around.

Just look at the past year alone. All of this stuff coming out about Republicans (and really does it matter if its at the state level or not? it is still a reflection of the party) who advocate/support/believe in trying to rewrite history in regards to slavery being a blessing for black Americans, marginalizing a portion of rape victims, advocating a return to Biblical "morality" by killing gays or unruly children, and basically a strong desire to create a theocratic government based on fear, hate, and a "us vs. them" mentality that has no use for anyone that isn't a "true believer". Basically, the hard right wants what the Muslim theocracies have. They can distance themselves from that, but what do you think a government that was based strictly on Biblical teachings would look like? It would see people thrown in jail for all sorts of reasons that had nothing to do with harming others, but simply harming others sensibility (or lack thereof).

We have seen George W. Bush go from "compassionate conservative" to a non-vetoing, big spending,torture enabling, war mongering, corporate slave,lying puppet. Then we had the audacity to hammer away on Obama for being un-American and a socialist. Obama has been a continuation, in many ways, but that shouldn't let Republicans off the hook for slamming him when they didn't mind it under Bush and don't seem to mind the same types of beliefs and behavior from Mitt Romney. 

Think about the people who ran for the GOP nomination; Santorum, Bachman, Perry, Cain, Gingrich. All of them with the exception of Gingrich (perhaps Cain) are supporters of theocracy and Gingrich is right with them, despite being the only one that god didn't call to run. Look at what these people have said and what they ran on and try to explain why they were popular at different times. Their words and beliefs are firmly anti-woman, anti-gay, and basically anti-anyone who isn't making over $75,000 a year. Why were social moderates and libertarians (who are the true conservatives in many ways) like Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, and John Huntsman dismissed very early on in the process? They were marginalized by the radical right. 

Regardless if you are a social moderate or a fiscal conservative, this party doesn't fit you anymore. It's not YOUR party. It belongs to those with a radical right wing worldview. Again, that's OK for them, but how on earth can anyone who cares about human beings, fiscal responsibillity, and liberty over corporations, status, and religious dogma continue to support a party that doesn't hold their values any longer.

What has happened to the party of Lincoln? A man who thought all human beings had merit and were important. What happened to Roosevelts GOP military policy of a strong defense; "walk softly, but carry a big stick"? What has happened to the smaller, less intrusive government that Goldwater touted? What happened to the optimism and big tent philosophy of Ronald Reagan? What happened to "helping a person to help themselves" by giving them the tools they need to succeed?

All that has seemingly been replaced by loyalty to party over country, preemptive and aggressive military policy, big spending, the want to legislate morality, litmus tests for Republican candidates, and throwing people to the wolves without a safety net and calling it empowerment and freedom.The Republican Party through all of the above is beginning to limit itself on who is acceptable to them. The demographics of the country is changing towards a more diverse population, where the white male is no longer the majority. The country is becoming more secular. People are beginning to value liberty and freedom again, after having had it taken away piece by piece over the past 12 years. The base of the GOP is becoming marginalized as we move into the future. What will we have then? Just the Democrats? What's that going to look like? Having just one real alternative to vote for and even that isn't very appealing. Will we move towards a rise in libertarianism? If the Republican Party is dying and being overrun with radicals, I certainly hope an alternative that is acceptable arises in the name of freedom and a government for, of, and by the people!

And for those who are not Republicans; when the hell did we stop being creative in our problem solving? Why only two ways? Why keep going back and forth between failed ideologies and ideas? Why the demonizing of anyone who dares talk about a different way of doing things? Why the fear? Go back and read the words of Jefferson, Franklin and many others who dared to think differently when drawing up our style of government and governing documents. Neither party is very close to living up to the ideal of America. Why are we as Americans, not Republicans and Democrats, allowing career politicians, charlatans, and opportunists to rule us when they are supposed be doing the work of the people? Instead of us telling them what we want, they tell us how it's going to be and sell it all on safety, security, and the demonizing of free thought and expression.

Why are we not outraged? Why are we not passionate? Why are we not giving a damn about the country and the people (US!) who live here?

Struggling With Faith? Do Something About It!

For most of my life, I have been a believer in the Christian god. I was brought up on it and like others, I really got scared of the whole notion of hell and someone listening to my every thought. How bad I must be to have "sinful" thoughts as often as I did. I never even considered that everyone else has stupid stuff go through their minds too.....I thought it was just me. I wrestled with hell a lot, but I never allowed myself to even consider that I might be wasting my time with all that worry. 

A few years back, I started exploring my faith. I looked at Christianity with a critical eye and I began to research other religions. Then, I read "The God Delusion" by Richard Dawkins and it occurred to me; What if there isn't a god? What if I can just live my life without the guilt and torment? What if I could be a happy human being? 

From there, I felt like I should look into my questions. I had never really gave not believing a fair chance. How could I? I was raised up on Jesus watching me all the time (not just in December when Santa has his critical eye on me) and fear of damnation. I was in church at the time and came to a point where I felt like I was being hypocritical by attending Sunday school in the morning and then reading Dawkins and Sam Harris in the evening. I stopped going and decided I would put the Bible to the test, so I started actually reading it. I wanted to test it against modern morality and ethics and see what god really said about how to treat people and it didn't hold up. I still continued to pray a couple of times a day for Jesus to help me along and show me the truth. Obviously, he didn't have much to say. My relationship was a one way street with my imagination. 

I continued to study religion and atheism and finally a little voice in my head said; "There is no god." Along with my losing religion, I was also dumping my penchant for certitude. Rather than proclaim myself an atheist or whatever, I decided that I just didn't know. With a gun to my head, I'd bet on there NOT being a god, but otherwise, hell, I just don't know. Nobody does. 

OK, it's taken me four paragraphs to get here, but what I wanted to say is that it's alright to have doubts. It's natural and you should welcome those doubts. If you don't, you are shutting off your mind, your intellect, and reason. If you believe a god gave you those things, then certainly you can see why it should be imperative that you use your intelligence and exercise critical thought. If I had to suggest some reading for a Christian who was wrestling with his faith, I would first suggest the Dan Barker book "godless". Barker is a former evangelist, Christian song writer and record producer. His book outlines his journey from being on fire for god to firing god. It speaks in a easy going manner to the recently converted and/or those who are starting to become unsure of their faith. 

I'd also suggest "Letter To A Christian Nation" by Sam Harris. He makes a great case, in a very short book, against religion as a whole. He mainly focuses on Christianity, because it is the prevailing religion in the USA, but he does so in a way that tries to allow the reader to take their belief into account in context with Islam or any other religion. His first, full scale book is called "The End of Faith" and it's also worth a persons time. It would be easy and probably cliche' for me to tell someone to run out and buy "God Is Not Great" by Christopher Hitchens or "The God Delusion" by the aforementioned Dawkins. Those are great books and for someone who has recently lost their faith, I'd recommend them as great guides to strengthen your decision and resolve. You Tube is a great resource to hear anyone speak that I've mentioned to this point. Learning about the universe, quantum physics, consciousness, and critical thought have been so satisfying after spending much of my life tuned out to those things. 

Don't let anyone talk you into or out of your faith if you are wavering. Explore it for yourself. Use your mind and reason. Read the Bible. Really read what god says. If your faith is meant to be, it should stand up to the scrutiny of your mind and what you learn. You wouldn't be afraid to read Lee Strobel's "The Case For Christ" or "The Ragamuffin Gospel" by Brendan Manning, so don't be afraid to read some of the stuff I've mentioned. Be fair to god and yourself.  It's been a very satisfying journey for me personally and I wouldn't change it for anything. If you are struggling with your faith, go ahead and do something about it. Either way, you should come away feeling proud that you came to your decision on your own terms, without indoctrination.

Gary Johnson for President in 2012!

I haven't written anything for this blog in about two months. That's an incredibly long stretch for me, and since I have my work week done, I've decided to get in some writing. 

I've pretty much been a Republican my entire adult life. I voted for Bush 1 over Clinton. I voted for Bob Dole. Hell, I voted for W.....twice! But enough was enough. I started checking myself and thought about my beliefs back in 2007. When I dissected how I thought and felt about the issues in a real and personal way, I started to find out that I didn't really buy into what the GOP was selling, especially on a social level. I still couldn't bring myself to vote for Obama, so I didn't vote at all. John McCain had gone from a middle of the road Republican to a right winger, just to get the nomination over Mitt Romney. This time, Romney has done the same thing and swung even more to the right. I still don't identify with the Democrats, and after seeing how Obama pretty much continued the Bush Administrations policies in many areas, I knew I was losing my political identity. 

But, in the last four or five weeks I have started seeing some articles about Gary Johnson. I took a couple of those "What are you?" political tests and saw that I fall in line, largely, with a libertarian point of view. I have decided to embrace that, while maintaining my preference to not strictly align myself with any party. It's a bit liberating to not have to defend the indefensible, which is the monopolized system we are currently in. 

Learn More About Gary Johnson!

You see, Gary Johnson gives me someone to vote FOR and not against. I don't see voting for the "lesser of two evils" as some sort of triumph in American politics. I see it as a disaster in the making, where politicians can pay lip service to the mainstream American as they gain power and wealth by setting our system up to cater to the wealthy and multi-national corporations. Why would a politician really address your concerns? You don't make large contributions. You don't throw fund raisers. You just vote. And if you only have one other choice, you just have to cling to the party you ALWAYS support as if this is one big sports rivalry like the Yankees and Red Sox. A two party system is agreeable to the Dems and GOP, because even if they lose an election, they are only one cycle from regaining power. They only have to fight the "other side" and they don't have to contend with other ideas. We have become a country of liberals and conservatives instead of a country of Americans. We have sold out the idea of America to belong to a club that we refuse to disagree with because we have invested in it on a prideful and psychological level. It's sad. 

With that, I am proud to say that I am going to vote for Gary Johnson. Johnson has more governing experience than either of the two major candidates and he has actually started a business from the ground up. When Johnson was in college at the University of New Mexico, he earned money by being a handyman. He went door to door searching out work opportunities. Over the years, he was able to grow from a one man show into a business that was worth $10 million! He didn't get that money from his daddy,and yeah, he built that! 

Johnson got into politics in 1994 for the first time and ran for governor in New Mexico. That's a really high place to begin for a guy just starting out in politics. Against conventional advice, he started his campaign using some of his own money and ran as a Republican. Mind you, New Mexico is a largely Democratic state, so not very many people gave him a chance to even get the party nomination, let alone to actually win the governorship. As these sorts of stories can go, he defied the odds and won the nomination and then the general election! Why did he win? Because he spoke to the ordinary citizen. He was (and is) a proponent of small, less intrusive government. He is a leader in the fight for personal freedom and he is a man of his word. True to showing that he wasn't bought and sold by any party, Johnson used his veto power to shoot down any piece of legislation that wasn't necessary to the state or the government. Wasteful spending was eliminated. 

When he ran for re-election, he simply campaigned on the success and fulfillment of his word from his first term. It was expected that he would have a tough time winning a second term, as he was running against a Hispanic opponent. The pundits proved how out of touch they can be by simplifying people down to being robots who are only capable of voting for "their own kind". Johnson won easily and continued to govern as he had before. He made the availability of school vouchers and the elimination of war on drugs central pieces of his agenda and he also opposed the building of private prisons. An industry that should give EVERY American pause about how we create and enforce laws. 

Meet Gary Johnson!

Gary Johnson is the real deal. He has a record that is one of success, met expectations, and kept promises. He tried to run for the Republican nomination, but was largely ignored by the GOP and the press. The party abandoned him, so he went about his business and embraced the Libertarian Party, much the way Ron Paul has in the past. Johnson and the Libertarian Party have worked hard and he is now on the ballot in 47 states. The Republicans have tried to block him from getting on the ballot in three other states, but Johnson is fighting those efforts. It's not likely that you will see him in the presidential debates, even though he meets all the criteria but one. He isn't at 15% in the polling. He may have never reached that point anyhow, but it's impossible to know because he isn't listed on polls and the pollsters only focus on Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, or "other". It's a bit of a scam. It is specifically designed to keep anyone except Republicans and Democrats out of the conversation about our nation.  

Is Mitt Romney Scared Of Gary Johnson?

I've been told I'm wasting my vote and I beg to differ in a big way! How is my vote wasted if I am voting for the person I believe in and who most reflects my values? Wouldn't I truly be wasting the right to vote if I simply cast my ballot for the "lesser of two evils"? Wouldn't I have to consider myself intellectually dishonest if I only voted for a person because of some sort of misguided allegiance to a party that doesn't have the countries best interest at heart? 

Gary Johnson is the only candidate willing to be an adult. To be open and honest about the state of the country and what needs to be done to start us going in the right direction again. Here is a rundown of a few of Johnson's beliefs and proposals for restoring America;

1) simplify the tax system, abolish the IRS

2) a strong defense that isn't into nation building and forcing our political will on others

3) he opposes censorship

4) he opposes the War On Drugs as it is currently

5) he wants to cut the federal budget by 43%, and allow states to get involved with Medicare to suit their citizens better

6)  he advocates state's rights

7) he is for balancing the budget immediately

8) he believes the Federal Reserve is devaluing our currency and wants to eliminate it

9) he supports the rights of individuals over the state

10) he believes corporate welfare should be shut down

11) he is against lobbying

These things are not out of step with most Americans. Gary Johnson is for all the things that most Americans say they are for and what the two major parties SAY they are striving for. But the results have not shown it. The Democrats and Republicans work their agenda the way they want to, not how the American people want it done. Those parties work for the wealthy and corporations. Sure, they will throw out some sound bites that make people believe they are in tune with people who have lost their jobs, their homes, and are struggling to pay their bills. These parties are directly responsible for the destruction of our manufacturing base which has crippled the middle class, but they will NOT do anything to solve those problems. 

The choice is simple for our country. Continue down the path we are on or start making changes. Gary Johnson may not win this election, but the tide has to turn somewhere. Why not now? Why not here at this point in history? Why can't we look back at 2012 as a point in time where we decided that things had to change? If Johnson got just 10 or 15% of the vote, it would be a huge wake up call for our mainstream politicians and this country. A voice will have been heard. I think our nation is worth it.